Tag Archives: skiing

What to Expect from winter 2015-16 in Colorado

Forecasting the weather weeks to months ahead of time can often be problematic. Computer models that project atmospheric conditions into the future typically only provide utility out to 10-14 days, depending on who you ask. After that, forecasts often become erroneous due to what is often referred to as the “chaos effect”. In fact, there are many that believe that forecasting the weather for a specific day is only useful out to roughly 7-10 days. Most people manage their weather expectations beyond the 7-10 day horizon not by forecasting a specific event, but by describing more general expected trends.  It is more common to say something like “It is likely that the period from 14-21 days out will be warmer and drier than normal across much of the Western United States”.

Scientifically credible seasonal forecasts tend to rely on larger scale phenomenon that have been shown to impact our weather in the past. Luckily, for this upcoming season, the winter of 2015-16, there are two such phenomenon that could give us some significant foresight into what we could expect out of this coming winter.

The first, and most obvious one is the strong El Nino that is already underway. Strong El Nino conditions typically bring wet weather to the Southern United States due to a strong sub-tropical jet stream. In particular, California can be the recipient of some heavy rainfall, which hopefully can help give the state some much needed relief from the extreme drought conditions than have been experiencing. The other major impact, on a national level, is that the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains tend to have milder than average winters during strong El Ninos.

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Unfortunately, maps like this one often make it ambiguous as to what impact El Nino typically has on the weather here in Colorado. On this map, as well as nearly every map of El Nino impacts, Colorado is in kind of a neutral zone, where areas to the south are wetter than usual, and areas to the north are drier than usual. However, as any resident of Colorado knows, Colorado’s rugged terrain has a significant impact on the weather here. Therefore, it is possible to discern some more local impacts that occur here in Colorado, as different large scale wind patterns are impacted by Colorado’s many mountain ranges. There are many sources of information regarding how Colorado fares during a strong El Nino year. Below is a graphical summary of these impacts.

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In addition to El Nino, there is another major weather feature that could have a profound impact on our weather this winter. Not only are there warmer than normal ocean temperatures along the equator associated with the strong El Nino, but there is another section of extremely warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean farther north. This section of warm temperatures off the west coast of North America is being labelled “The Blob”. “The Blob” formed due to a persistent period of warmer and drier weather over the past several years. This is the weather pattern that lead to the extreme drought in California in the first place, and, now threatens to keep much of California in drought conditions despite the El Nino.

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The easiest way to describe the impact “The Blob” is going to have on our winter weather is that it is going to try to produce conditions similar to last winter. Last winter was warm and dry over much of the West due to a persistent ridge, labelled “the ridge of death” by snow enthusiasts at OpenSnow, which is often associated with warmer sea surface temperatures off the Pacific Coast of North America.

While it is hard to imagine “The Blob” completely overwhelming the impacts of this historic El Nino, it does have the potential to modify them. Firstly, it could make the Pacific Northwest drier, and reduce the amount of rainfall California receives, particularly Northern California. Over Colorado, more frequent ridging, and/or dry Northwesterly flow aloft will reduce the likelihood of major Front Range upslope snowstorms, and increase the likelihood of a drier than normal winter over parts of Central Colorado, including many of the major ski resorts such as Vail, Breckenridge, and Copper Mountain. Those who hate extreme cold, though, will be comforted by the fact that the likelihood of sub-zero conditions across most of the state will be significantly below average this season.

The End of a Season

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Last November, prior to the start of the 2014-2015 ski season, I attended a screening of Warren Miller’s No Turning Back.  The main part of this film is broken up into eight segments, each one featuring a different location around the world, and each one containing footage of extreme skiing or snowboarding interwoven into a storyline that describes the people and the culture around snow sports in that location.  This film’s primary impact is to get skiers and snowboarders excited about the upcoming season.  However, the introduction to this film actually contained a reminder that every ski season comes to an inevitable end.  A time lapse of a ski resort becoming progressively more green over time (during springtime) is shown while the narrator (of the introduction) compares skiing and ski season to “falling in love with someone you know is going to leave you in four months.”

Well, here in Colorado, that four month expiration date appears to be rapidly approaching.  On Friday (3/27), Vail ski resort, the largest in the state, was still being patronized by a significant number of snow sport enthusiasts.  However, signs everywhere are pointing towards the inevitable decline in the quality of the skiing that accompanies the transition from winter into spring.  Not the only recent day to feature temperatures exceeding 50F, sections of bare ground can be seen not only on the horizon, but also on many of the slopes themselves, particularly slopes that feature bumps on Vail’s back side.

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Increasingly, trails are either being signed to caution skiers of this variable terrain, or being closed off altogether.

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Conditions like these are often labelled “spring conditions”, a label that is both descript and non-discript at the same time.  Labels like “powder” and “groomed” are commonly used to describe the snow conditions on any given slope.  These two labels, amongst the most commonly used, provide a clear indication of what kind of snow a skier or snowboarder can expect to encounter.  When conditions are labeled as “spring conditions”, they are often quite variable.

Over the course of the day on Friday, I encountered all sorts of snow conditions.  There were parts with large clumps of snow, parts with hard packed snow, parts that were quite icy, and, of course parts that were very slushy.  I even managed to find a couple of spots with untouched new snow in the trees (I am not calling it “powder” as the snow is wet in variety, much like the snow one would regularly see in New York City).  I often encountered a significant variety of snow conditions while traversing a single ski trail.  Transitioning, often from hard packed to icy, and then to slushy, would cause sudden shifts in my weight distribution.  Being jerked, both forwards and backwards while skiing down the mountain almost made me feel as if I were at a rodeo.  Only, instead of being jerked around by a bull, angry that his reproductive region had been recently violated, I was being jerked around by what is labeled “spring conditions”.

Regardless of whether we ski, partake in some other form of activity, or just enjoy warmer weather, spring, and the conditions associated with it, do often jerk us around, much in the same way I was at Vail.  Springtime is not a slow and steady transition from winter’s chill to warmer weather.  It is often chaotic with wildly variant weather patterns that people in Oklahoma are unfortunately all too familiar with.

Sometimes, as is the case in the Northeastern U.S. this year, winter just seems to keep on going, maintaining it’s grip far longer than expected.  Those who eagerly anticipate spring’s warmth have a rough time with years like this one, as it almost feels as if nature is trying to torment them.  Other years are far more choppy.  In many parts of the country, this time of year can feature weeks that include both summer-like warmth, and snow, sometimes even within a day or two of each other.  It is not unheard of for an early spring warm period to trigger some to plant outdoors, only to have these plants killed by an unexpected hard freeze later in the year.

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Much like all other aspects of life, at the end of one season comes another one.  And, while the season to play in the snow is coming to an end, spring brings with it a whole new set of opportunities.  For those whose one and only love is skiing or snowboarding, the end of winter can feel very much like the narrator of No Turning Back described it; as having a feeling similar to having lost a love after four months.  However, for those who are fortunate enough to have found an appreciation for all of life’s seasons, the end of winter, and the transition to spring, while an ending in one sort, is also a beginning, with spring bringing with it a new set of opportunities.

The main advantage to living somewhere with seasons, as opposed to somewhere with consistent weather, is the variety that comes along with these cyclical changes.  In places like these, each season is distinct from the last.  At different times of year, we go to different places, and do different things, and even incorporate periods of rest and renewal into the cycle.  It provides life with a clear breaking point that distinguishes one year from another; something that many lack beyond college and graduate school.  I will most likely be back at Vail ski resort, to once again enjoy some of the world’s best skiing, before the end of 2015.  When that occurs, it will certainly have the look and feel of a completely new ski season distinct from the one that just ended.  Until then, the time has come to go and explore different places, maybe chase some storms, take some longer bike rides, or visit some places that are much more easily reached without the threat of a blizzard interrupting travel.  The coming months will certainly feature some amazing experiences that I cannot wait to have, enjoy, and share.

Vail; Where You Can Have it All?

“Having it all” means something different in different situations. For skiers, “having it all” generally means three things.

Ideal snow conditions…

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Comfortable weather…

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And, reasonable lift lines…

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Of course, there is reason to believe that this kind of ski day is an unrealistic expectation. Comfortable weather conditions do not always produce the best snow conditions, and good snow conditions often bring crowds to a ski resort.

However, last Thursday, I believed that I could find this ideal combination at Vail Ski Resort. The previous day, Wednesday, Vail received several inches of new snow. But Thursday’s weather was warmer across the state. I believed the with combination of the recent new snow, a pleasant weather, and Thursday being a work day, I could “have it all”.

But, it did not quite work that way. Primarily, as the pictures above show, the lift lines were a bit longer than anticipated. This could actually be because of the Alpine World Ski Championships, which drew additional people up to the mountains.

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But, the additional people could also have been drawn to the mountain by the new snow, which we had not received too much of in the past few weeks.

There wasn’t too much new snow either, so Thursday’s conditions did not end up being truly ideal.

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Wise people will often remind others to keep their expectations within the realm of what is reasonably possible. Statements such as “You can’t have your cake and eat it too.”, are commonly used to keep expectations in check and protect people from a near certain disappointment.

It’s hard not to stop someone dead in their tracks as they begin speaking of things such as finding a 3 bedroom house in a safe neighborhood less than 5 miles from downtown for under $300,000. We know that this is not a realistic expectation and that any person who sincerely has these aspirations will likely be quite disappointed.

The understanding that some expectations are unrealistic comes from experience. Those of us that have experienced the “real world”, have seen countless people disappointed as the “realities of life” get in the way of ambitious desires. And, these desires don’t just include things like wanting to be a movie star or wanting to solve some kind of major world problem. They often include situational things like wanting a reasonable amount of success at their company without having to compromise on any of their principles, or wanting to ensure all of their friends and family are happy.

However, those of us with experience that are not completely jaded do know there are exceptions. After all, movie stars and world changers do exist. They are just a small minority of people who set out to do these things. And, they become successful through some sort of combination of aptitude, drive, and luck.

So, despite the real possibility of disappointment, it is hard for me to completely write off all lofty goals. Some people do achieve them. And, the hope that one will land their ideal job, or will find a way to make a difference, likely has a positive impact on people’s lives that more than offsets the negative impacts that results from the frustrations that occur when expectations of the world are not met.

Christmastime in Breckenridge

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Last winter, I spent around a dozen days in Breckenridge, Colorado, including a week-long stay here in late February.  Only a 90 minute drive from Denver, I feel quite comfortable coming up here on a day trip, without spending money on lodging, on a regular basis.  To wake up, drive to Breckenridge, ski for six hours or so, and then drive back does not make for an overwhelmingly tiring day.

When traveling to a particular destination becomes as regular as this one has become for me, the lines become kind of blurred.  In a physical sense, I am most definitely traveling.  I prepare, I pack, and I get in a vehicle and go to a different location which is a non-trivial distance away.  It is not a run of the mill trip to the grocery store or a neighbor’s house.  However, there are a significant number of people who commute longer than 90 minutes each way to work every day.  For them, a trip that takes at least as long as my trip to Breckenridge (when there isn’t bad traffic), has become routine.  It is certainly not something that any of these commuters would categorize as “travel”.  A trip up to Breckenridge for me is without a doubt more interesting and exciting than a 90 minute drive to work, but it is only slightly less routine.  I know what to pack, I know what to expect, and I know where everything is.  So, a trip like this straddles some kind of middle ground between what most would consider “travel”, and what most would consider just a part of life’s routine.

However, for many, Breckenridge is most definitely a highly sought after travel destination.  In fact, according to a fairly recent Travel + Leisure article, Breckenridge is the second most visited North American ski resort, behind only Vail.  And, since the printing of that particular article, the resort has actually gotten bigger, with the opening of a whole new section of the resort- Peak 6.

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Despite its size, it is actually fairly easy to get around the resort.  Each peak on the resort labelled numerically, and both the ski lifts and trails are labelled quite clearly.

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A variety of great trails, and panoramic views, already existed before the opening of Peak 6.

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Peak 6 added something unique; essentially intermediate level skiing in a wide open area above the tree line.

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Even with Peak 6 rising to 12,300 feet, the highest point on the mountain is still the top of Imperial Express.

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At 12,840 feet, the very top of the mountain it often gets quite windy.  In fact, this part of the resort gets closed quite frequently due to high winds, even on some perfectly sunny days.  If there are relatively strong winds at any of the other parts of the mountain, I will often have no desire to come up here, and deal with even stronger wind at this elevation.  Luckily for us, Saturday was a relatively calm day, making it an ideal time to head to this part of the mountain.  For anyone that can handle the more challenging terrain up here, I would recommend making a trip to the top of the resort at least once on a calmer day, as there are very few places where you can overlook a ski area from above as you can here.

Town of Breckenridge in the Winter

In addition to the popular ski resort, Breckenridge is a pretty vibrant town, especially during ski season, and one that I greatly appreciate.  Main Street, which is lined with shops, restaurants, and even nightlife, is a mere two blocks from the ski resort’s main Gondola parking.  Numerous condos line the roads that offshoot from Park Avenue, providing many visitors with places to stay within walking distance of both the ski lifts and Main Street!

In addition, the town is fairly unique.  Surrounding nearly every other ski resort I have visited is a ski village that was built primarily to serve the ski resort.  These villages are typically pedestrian-only areas (usually buses can come in) that lie between the main parking lot and the ski resort.  Since these towns were built around the ski resorts, they typically have all of the amenities that anyone on a ski trip would need, often including numerous hotels and ski shops.  However, Breckenridge, having existed long before the ski resort, offers the experience of a ski town that has the layout, and feel, of a normal town.  It feels a bit less like one is visiting a resort village, and more like one is visiting a town that happens to have an incredibly popular ski resort next to it.

With the lighting of the Christmas tree Saturday night, Breckenridge “officially” kicked off the Christmas season.  For many, the Christmas season has already begun.  In fact, some do not even wait until Thanksgiving to begin preparing for Christmas.  However, now, for better or worse, the season has kicked into full gear.

On the drive back Sunday, after another nearly full day of skiing, some lamented that it was time to return to “normal life”.  But, did we ever really leave our “normal lives”?  All of us involved in this trip live in Denver, and ski up in the mountains quite regularly, carrying season passes to multiple resorts.  Having skied 22 days last winter, 18 the year prior, and with the expectation of skiing nearly as frequently this winter, I feel as if last weekend, I was simply enjoying a funner part of my “normal life”.  And, this Christmas, I can be thankful that something as fun and enjoyable as skiing in Breckenridge is not a “vacation” or “travel” from which I will return from, but a part of the cadence that represents my “normal life” in its’ current state.

Early Season Skiing

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Winter is on its way!  And, unlike in many other parts of the country, here in Colorado, the arrival of winter is highly anticipated by those who love snow and snow related sports.  At the highest elevations in the mountains of Central Colorado, snow is possible at any time of year.  However, it is not until November when consistent snowpack can be expected at elevations between 8,000 and 12,000 feet, where most of the major ski resorts reside.

For those who truly love skiing or snowboarding, November often becomes somewhat of a waiting game.  This year, the snow was late to arrive in the mountains of Colorado.  The image below shows the snow pack in the Central Rocky Mountains on November 1st, 10th and 22nd (left, center, and right).  As indicated by this image, the month started with virtually no snow in the mountains, as October was quite warm.  However, a major shift in the weather pattern around Veterans day (Nov. 11) brought with it much colder weather for most of the Nation, and significant snowfalls to the Central Rockies.  The mountain snowpack in Colorado is now closer to the average for this time of year, and the ski resorts have finally been able to open up some of their trails.

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It wasn’t 100% my decision to begin my ski season this past Saturday.  When is comes to activities like this, decisions on when and where to go very rarely truly rest in the hands of one individual.  Functionally, the decision to ski, or take part in any kind of activity in the mountains, is always partially dependent on the schedules of all of the people involved, and partially dependent on the weather.

Saturday’s conditions at Keystone were not too terribly uncommon for early season skiing.  As previously mentioned, snowpacks are now close to the typical amounts for mid to late November.  However, more recently, the weather warmed up.  And, as is not too terribly uncommon for those who try to ski prior to Thanksgiving, temperatures were above freezing by mid-morning on all parts of the mountain, and reached well into the 40s at the base.

One of the biggest issues with skiing this early in the year is that typically not all of the trails have opened yet.  On Saturday, most of the trails on the main part of the mountain, Dercum Mountain, were open.  However, most of the rest of the mountain remained closed.  The result was that a higher volume of skiers and boarders were concentrated on the part of the resort that is open.

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The lines for the ski lifts were quite long all day long.  At the start of the day, snow conditions were quite good.  However, they would deteriorate quite quickly.  Despite the fact that the mountain’s overall patronage was just over half what one would expect on a typical weekend day in January or February, by early afternoon much of the opened parts of the resort had become both crowded and “skied off”.

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“Skied off” refers to the conditions that occur after thousands of skiers and boarders have already gone down the trail, and moved the snow around as they make their turns.  On more powdery days, the snow will often clump up at various portions of the mountain.  On a warmer day like Saturday, after this large of a volume of skiers have traversed the mountain, it is pretty common for parts of the mountain to become icy- especially in the steeper areas where more turns are being made and more snow is being pushed down the mountain.

In either circumstance, the conditions become less favorable.  In fact, there is somewhat of a divide amongst skiers in the area, with some electing to wait for more enjoyable conditions, and others still believing the trip up to the mountains to be worthwhile.

It has frequently been pointed out to me that although these conditions are far from optimal compared to what can typically be found in Colorado, many other parts of the country cannot be so choosy.  Those that have skied a significant amount in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic will often describe a day like Saturday as a “typical day in New England”.  Some have even said that despite the iciness and crowds, these conditions are better than what they typically see in that part of the country.

In the evening, I returned to Denver to see Warren Miller’s film No Turning Back screened at the Paramount Theater.  The film featured extreme skiing and snowboarding adventures in various parts of the world.  They included incredibly steep terrain, major jumps, and tricks that are undoubtedly life threatening.  The people featured in this film were definitely amongst the craziest and most daring in the sport.  These are the skiers that would generally not be able to enjoy skiing at a resort on a day like Saturday.  Their experience and appetite mandates more; better conditions, more challenging terrain, and, much more significantly, more effort to reach their ideal venues.

I can see some parallels in some of the skiers and boarders I have encountered in Colorado.  I have heard people say that they can only truly enjoy skiing if it is a powder day.  And, others that stick to back country skiing and hike-to-terrain, both of which require a much greater effort than simply riding on the ski lift or gondola.  Maybe this just comes with experience, and improving at something.  But, although the moves seem quite bad-ass (for lack of a better way to put it), and I know that the skiing I do will never be something that warrants viewership by an audience, I can’t help but feel like the people in this film are more limited in some ways.  These extremely experienced skiers and boarders have overcome limits regarding challenge, but in turn, have new limits, as they are now limited by finding ideal conditions, and ideal locations.  These are limitations I still live without, and being able to enjoy skiing Keystone on Saturday November 22nd is a clear demonstration.